Rebecca Holmes, Cox Communications Economist, provides some perspective on our economic and political climate.

The recession that began in December of 2007 probably ended this summer. This year and a half duration and almost 4% drop in GDP makes it the longest and the deepest downturn the nation has experienced since the Great Depression.

Now that the worst appears to have passed, we are beginning to focus our attention on the recovery. Each summer, Cox Communication airs an interactive program in which we ask viewers about their expectations for the economy in the upcoming year. Their responses give a glimpse of what we can expect in 2010.

Viewers in Tucson and Phoenix are optimistic that the economy is on the mend: almost three-fourths expect economic conditions to be the same or better next year compared to this year.

There were some differences between the cities: Tucson viewers are more optimistic than Phoenicians about the job market, with 40% expecting a better job market next year, compared with 32% of Phoenicians. Tucson viewers also expect the economy to recover sooner, with 80% expecting Arizona to be expanding by 2011, compared to only 56% in Phoenix.

Despite their optimism on the economic outlook, when asked about family finances, Tucson viewers were more pessimistic than Phoenicians. 70% of Tucson viewers expected their family finances to worsen next year, compared with only a 30% of Phoenicians. Tucsonans were also more pessimistic about the housing market, with only 8% expecting the value of their homes to rise next year, versus almost half of our Phoenix respondents expecting higher housing prices next year.

We asked viewers about the recent Federal economic stimulus spending and about the quality of Arizona’s elected leaders.

In Tucson, almost 60% believed that stimulus spending was having a positive impact; the rest said there was no impact. In Phoenix, only 40% of viewers forecasted a positive impact on the economy.

Finally, the state budget crisis is clearly impacting opinions of our elected leadership. When we asked how Arizona’s elected leadership compares to that of other states, 80% of Tucsonans rated Arizona’s leadership as inferior, up 30 points from year ago levels. In Phoenix, 60% rated our leadership as inferior, up 20 points from year ago levels.